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Prediction for CME (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-11T21:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10195/-1
CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/10199/1
Model Inputs:
2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=450.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2016-02-12T05:36Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-02-15T05:51Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =229.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160212_053600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.38 hour(s)
Difference: -0.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Ethan Robinett (CUA) on 2016-02-12T02:52Z

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